Polymarket

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

30%chance

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

12%chance

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Multi

1

33%

3

3%

+4 more

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 31

14%

March 31

0%

+4 more

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

5%chance

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑5k

16%

↑1k

100%

+7 more

New pandemic in 2026?

11%chance

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

Multi

0

0%

2

0%

+7 more

Named storm forms before hurricane season?

0%chance

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

7%chance

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

5%chance

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Multi

<5

59%

11-12

5%

+6 more

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

11%chance

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

32%chance

Natural Disaster in 2026?

27%chance

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

13%chance

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

32%chance

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Multi

<5

0%

5–7

1%

+5 more

science