Polymarket

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

March 31

0%

April 30

0%

+3 more

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

March 31

0%

April 30

0%

+3 more

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

0%chance

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

May 31

4%

April 17

0%

+14 more

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

28%chance

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

0%chance

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

Oil Sanction Relief

3%

Unfreeze Iranian Assets

2%

+2 more

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

3%chance

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

20+

8%

60+

1%

+2 more

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

Multi

10-20

3%

40-60

0%

+3 more

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

United Kingdom

1%

France

0%

+17 more

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

47%chance

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

83%chance

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?

May 15

0%

May 31

2%

+1 more

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 25?

Multi

<25

25%

50-74

12%

+3 more

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?

Troop Withdrawal

23%

Enrichment of Uranium

6%

+3 more

Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?

12%chance

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

United Kingdom

12%

France

11%

+17 more

strait of hormuz